Jordan made a mess of the hand description in his latest post.
Here is how it really played out along with my thinking.
The Scene: Last night's MATH, blinds are T150/300/25a, 6-handed
Seat 2: HighOnPoker (T14,258 = 48BB)
Seat 6: Fuel55 (T11,322 = 38BB)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Fuel55 raises to 1,175 from CO with [Jc Jd]
HighOnPoker calls 1,025 from SB
*** FLOP *** [Qc 3h 7c] (pot is T2800)
Fuel55 checks (with 2nd pair there really is no point building a monster pot so I check behind)
I will take less information as a means of pot control in the spot most of the time.
*** TURN *** [Qc 3h 7c] [8d] (pot is T2800)
HighOnPoker bets 1,800 (Jordan bets another low card which he may or may not have hit)
Fuel55 calls 1,800 (good reason to believe I am ahead)
*** RIVER *** [Qc 3h 7c 8d] [9h] (pot is T6400)
HighOnPoker bets 2,700 (Jordan makes another stab?)
Fuel55 calls 2,700 (pot is laying me 3.4:1 so I need to be right 23% of the time to be profitable)
So on the turn I put Jordan on any two clubs, most pairs JJ-22, reasonable queens AQo, KQo, QTo+, and T9. This is a reasonable range given that he didn't reraise preflop and he checked the flop out of position.
Against this range I am a 58:42 favorite on turn. When the river is a non-club blank and the pot is laying me 3.4:1 I must call.
*** SHOW DOWN ***
HighOnPoker shows [Qh Kh] a pair of Queens
HighOnPoker wins the pot (11,775) with a pair of Queens
I rationalized that I am ahead on the flop and ergo the turn about 85% of the time and that his range has about 25% "catch up" equity. Since no reasonable catch up card (other than if he holds 77) came on the river I rationalized that I only have to beat a small percentage of his range to make calling T2700 into T9100 profitable in the long run.
I was wrong since Jordan made a brilliant top-pair check on the flop. Still I play the hand the same way the next time.
That's my perspective ...