Tuesday, January 22, 2008

It's All About Ranges

Jordan made a mess of the hand description in his latest post.

Here is how it really played out along with my thinking.

The Scene: Last night's MATH, blinds are T150/300/25a, 6-handed

Seat 2: HighOnPoker (T14,258 = 48BB)
Seat 6: Fuel55 (T11,322 = 38BB)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Fuel55 raises to 1,175 from CO with [Jc Jd]
HighOnPoker calls 1,025 from SB

*** FLOP *** [Qc 3h 7c] (pot is T2800)
HighOnPoker checks
Fuel55 checks (with 2nd pair there really is no point building a monster pot so I check behind)

I will take less information as a means of pot control in the spot most of the time.

*** TURN *** [Qc 3h 7c] [8d] (pot is T2800)
HighOnPoker bets 1,800 (Jordan bets another low card which he may or may not have hit)
Fuel55 calls 1,800 (good reason to believe I am ahead)

*** RIVER *** [Qc 3h 7c 8d] [9h] (pot is T6400)
HighOnPoker bets 2,700 (Jordan makes another stab?)
Fuel55 calls 2,700 (pot is laying me 3.4:1 so I need to be right 23% of the time to be profitable)

So on the turn I put Jordan on any two clubs, most pairs JJ-22, reasonable queens AQo, KQo, QTo+, and T9. This is a reasonable range given that he didn't reraise preflop and he checked the flop out of position.

Against this range I am a 58:42 favorite on turn. When the river is a non-club blank and the pot is laying me 3.4:1 I must call.

*** SHOW DOWN ***
HighOnPoker shows [Qh Kh] a pair of Queens
Fuel55 mucks
HighOnPoker wins the pot (11,775) with a pair of Queens

I rationalized that I am ahead on the flop and ergo the turn about 85% of the time and that his range has about 25% "catch up" equity. Since no reasonable catch up card (other than if he holds 77) came on the river I rationalized that I only have to beat a small percentage of his range to make calling T2700 into T9100 profitable in the long run.

I was wrong since Jordan made a brilliant top-pair check on the flop. Still I play the hand the same way the next time.

That's my perspective ...

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Presto is Gold (Part 113)

$1/2NL, 8-handed

EP calls $2
Fuel55 raises $7 to $9 with 5c 5s from CO
Victim raises $23 to $32
EP folds
Fuel55 calls $23 (I am not folding Presto!)

Who cares about odds when you have Presto?

>>>DEALING FLOP<<< [ 9d 8d 6c ]

Fuel55 bets $408.75 and is all-in
Victim says: one time just hold up
Victim calls $61 and is all-in

>>>DEALING TURN<<< [ Jh ]

>>>DEALING RIVER<<< [ 7s ]
Fuel55 cards were 5c 5s
Victim cards were Ad Ac
Fuel55 wins $188 with a nine high straight

Pure gold, pure gold ...

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Presto is Gold (Part 112)

Hansen85 raises $5 to $7 from MP
Fuel55 calls $7 from the button with 5d 5h

>>>DEALING FLOP<<< [ 8s 5s 5c ] (DQB!)
Hansen85 bets $11
Fuel55 calls $11

>>>DEALING TURN<<< [ Kh ]
Hansen85 bets $21
Fuel55 raises $21 to $42
Hansen85 calls $21

>>>DEALING RIVER<<< [ 9c ]
Hansen85 checks
Fuel55 bets $31
Hansen85 calls $31
Fuel55 cards were 5d 5h
Hansen85 cards were Ks Ac
Fuel55 wins $182 with four of a kind, fives