OK the reason I posted this hand is because it is so wierd. I can't ever remember being in a similar situation.
First of all recognize that this is a $5/10NL game so trickery is more prevalent than at lower limits. That was in the back of my head for sure on the river.
So let's review the hand:
*** HOLE CARDS ***
EP calls $10
Villian calls $10 (middle position limp doesn't mean much)
Fuel55 calls $5 from SB with [8h 8d]
BB checks
Non-normal circumstance 1: OK there are two limpers to me and I have 88 in the SB. I would raise here 75% of the time but in this case decided to just limp and see if I could flop a set.
*** FLOP *** [3h Kd 4c]
Fuel55 bets $10
BB folds
EP calls $10
Villian calls $10
Non-normal circumstance 2: Rather than check, I lead out to see if anyone is interested in this flop. I mistakenly bet 1/4 of pot when my click from $10 to $20 didn't catch before I fired the bet. With two calls I am pretty much done with the hand.
*** TURN *** [3h Kd 4c] [8c]
Fuel55 checks
EP checks
Villian checks
Now the turn hits me hard. I have the 2nd nuts. I decide to check to feign weakness and see if one of the other players fires a bet but they both check behind. You'd think someone with a king or a vulnerable two pair would bet here (e.g., 43s), wouldn't you? So I pretty have to put both opponents on draws like 56 or really crappy kings (KT or worse).
*** RIVER *** [3h Kd 4c 8c] [9h]
Fuel55 bets $40 (well I have to bet now - draws have missed)
EP folds
Villian minraises to $80 (wtf?)
Fuel55 minreraises to $120 (I have to see if he is for real before stacking off)
Villian has 15 seconds left to act
Villian minrereraises to $160 (wtf?)
Non-normal circumstance 3: back and forth min-raising is really wierd for sure so when Villian puts in the 4th bet I have to give it some serious respect. My thoughts were that he had K9 or 99 - what else makes any sense? Surely he wouldn't bluff minreraise with a busted draw would he? There is no way I can fold for $40 ...
I kind of discounted 33 and 44 since he is last to act on the turn and would surely bet one of these two hands. Similarly, I discounted KK since it would be too wierd to see Villian turn up KK here. So I put him on 99 (2nd set) or K9 (top two pair). Since it is 50/50 for me in this spot I just called the last $40.
Edit - my assumption on his two holdings being 50/50 here is incorrect as pointed out by Lucko and confirmed little Mikey Albert.
K9 and 99 as the "only two" possibilities much be constructed from KcKhKs/9d9c9s as:
Kc9d, Kc9c, Kc9s, Kh9c, Kh9d, Kh9s, Ks9d, Ks9c, Ks9s, 9d9c, 9d9s, 9c9s
These 12 objects weight in my favor 3:1 ...
Therefore I should raise, not call.
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villian shows [Kc 5c] a pair of Kings
Fuel55 shows [8h 8d] three of a kind, Eights
Fuel55 wins the pot ($387) with three of a kind, Eights
What the fawk?????????
K5 - have you ever seen a hand like this? I sure haven't.
So the reality is that if I shove he can't call therefore my best play would have been to minrerereraise another $40 ... LOL!
14 comments:
sorry I waited until now to chime in, but after I read the original post, I sat and just stared. I was thinking, "if I am beat, how do I possibly not go broke". I had to assume that was what was on your mind. Am I beat?
But I cant see the limps and the undying patience with KK, and if he had 99 and hit a miracle river... fair enough. But think of the equity you gave up to avoid the "monster in the closet".
That is one bizarre hand history. I have never seen the like and I am stunned at how that K5 villain played his bad one-pair hand.
I still stick with my thought process. Maybe not quite jam but I would be willing to go broke there if the villain had 99. It was just too weird. My read was 33 or 44. Nonetheless, it was a very weird hand and I don't blame you for just calling here either.
One other thought though is that if he had 99, on the third raise, I can't see him minraising. You clearly like your hand since you bet the river, get raised, and then you reraise the min amount. If the guy had 99, I can't imagine him just putting in the 4th raise for the minimum amount. Deceptive maybe but that's just not maximizing value in my opinion.
outplayed
Bizarre. After reading the initial hand history (but before reading this post), I felt like he would have raised with 99 preflop, or at least bet it when checked to on the turn. I mean, true minraisers typically like to make these dumb probe bets when checked to.
So it's hard to put him on anything that beats you, but how can the third raise on the river not be the nuts?
The call is OK, but it hurts.
he didnt play the cookie monster properly, you should have jammed and learned him a lesson.
also, you are a fish but dont know it yet
Told ya so ;-)
As for informing your prior. When I read the HH, I thought that there was some possibility that he had some trash hand like Kx or 9x, but honestly, I couldn't formulate a decent range, so my guess for that moment was to call and see what he had.
This may be colored by reading Professor Brunnermeier's work recently. His manuscript on clock games is no great technical shakes, but it offers some reasonable heuristics. One is that to a skilled (market) professional, the value of current information is higher than current payoffs, when information is sparse.
I see this all the time. Admit it Fuel you have been playing .5/.10. You never have a hand anyways so his raise is good.
How is "So I put him on 99 (2nd set) or K9 (top two pair). Since it is 50/50..." 50/50?
Your logic is flawed. There are more K9's than 99's. Ship the sherbert!
He was trying to get you off your hand with that raise...even on the fourth raise he was still trying to get you to fold.
Let's put on our donkey caps for a minute. Mine is always on, so it's easy.
Preflop:
I have a s00ted king. Guaranteed 3:1 if I call here.
Flop:
Top pair. Backdoor straight draw! 5:1, gotta call.
Turn:
Flush draw now, and a free card. I must be gold. The donkey who minbet the flop obviously has 2nd pair or an ace.
River:
Well, I've still got top pair, and my expert analysis tells me that Fuel guy doesn't beat my king, so I want to sucker him in with a minraise. What? He minraised me? He's obviously weak and trying to look strong with his weak re-minraise. I'll show my strength by minraising back and then he'll have to call and I get his chips.
Or something like that. That said, while your though process makes sense, the accidental $10 bet on the flop is what caused the confusion here. The check on the turn sealed it. I'd say K5 guy was just as confused and thought you were on a missed draw or that his K was good. If you hadn't admitted to making a mistake, and had pushed instead of calling on that last minraise, this would look like a really tricky play on your part. Then again, I only play aces, so I don't know very much.
Astin has that Donkey impression down well, no?
Fuel, I told you to min raise 1 more time because it is funny and would be +ev.
Post a Comment